The trading week has closed and the situation in the market has not changed for five weeks. The price is around the zone of $135-140 for 36 days already. Since 4 March, the price humbly moves in the black growth channel. It is interesting that, with weak and fluctuating growth, volumes also decreased moderately:
This is a good signal that the current growth is due to inertia and buyers are not ready to buy actively. This growth will end immediately after buyers face aggressive sellers, for example, in the price zone of $155-160. We have already seen what happened when buyers on 23 February attempted to break through this price zone. By the way, on this day, the volumes were much higher than now:
Therefore, at this time, our main scenario with the ultimate target of $100 remains in force.
Marginal buyers positions since 12 March updated the historical minimum, but globally they have been in a wedge since the beginning of the year:
Now, buyers are closing their positions. Growth of positions does not look sure, so at a sharp fall in prices, all buyers who bought since January 2019 can suddenly be in an unpleasant situation.
Seller marginal positions are at minimum and decrease since the beginning of the year:
This is another signal to reverse the local trend and seek a continuation of the price fall.
The wave of the fall, which began on 24 February and finished on 4 March has now been adjusted to 50%. After that, buyers tested Fibonacci level at $148.3 and the price began to fall. We think that buyers can try to break through this level and test $153.5, thereby adjusting the wave of the fall from 24 February by 61.8%. However, after that, we expect the continuation of the fall, so as to start at $126.5.
At this price is also the lower trend line of the triangle. This is the first possible point from which the price can bounce back and try again to test $155-160. In this case, the consolidation in the triangle will be delayed until the end of April.
However, if buyers can not keep $126.5, we expect $100.
We can only consider an alternative scenario of growth after the breakthrough and fixing by buyers over the price zone of $155-160. In addition to it, a good initiative and large volumes should be noticeable. We wish you profitable trading, even in such a humdrum market.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst. He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market. Image Courtesy: Bitcoin News
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