Well. The week ends, during which the buyers confidently left the consolidation triangle and tested the price zone, which we wrote about in the previous analysis. After the price went out from the triangle, the volumes of the trades significantly increased and the price began to increase more aggressively. If we analyze the volumes in more detail, then at 4-hour timeframe it is clearly visible that the largest volumes are fixed in the price zone of $255-275. Thus, the buyers shifted the liquid price zone by 10% higher, near which we forecasted a stop:
Now buyers are trying to resume growth and the price stopped in consolidation before the range of $255-275. The volumes are less than they were at the first attempt of breakdown, but if the sellers do not try to take the initiative into their hands, the breakdown zone of $255-275 is a matter of time.
If we analyze the marginal positions of buyers, then after a sharp closing of positions, buyers begin come to life and gradually increase their positions:
Sellers do not have the united mood and are currently moving in consolidation. However, their marginal positions are at historic low, so hoping for a sharp increase in prices by closing the unprofitable positions of sellers is useless:
In wave analysis, a new wave of growth, which began in February 2019 still in the triangle and is still longer than the previous wave of growth in 1.618 times. Now the price is traded over this level of Fibonacci. If buyers can not lower the price below – then we will have to forget about the scenario in which the current growth was a correction and should consist of only 3 waves. Even if sellers can lower the price below $240, the critical point for buyers will be at a price of $210. If buyers keep this price, we expect another wave of growth:
If we analyze the weekly timeframe, we see a large promising green candle on an increased volume that tells us that buyers have no desire to stop growth, and sellers have no power to counteract:
If buyers can fix themselves above the price range of $255-275, the next stop is $320. Otherwise, we will monitor how the price will behave at the price of $210 to select more likely scenario.
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About the Author: Peter Oleshchuk is a trader and technical analyst.
He has spent two years studying and analyzing the crypto market.
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