Walking on the edge of the lower trend line of the triangle did not sufficiently motivate Ethereum buyers to change the market situation. Even the false breakdown of the triangle, which occurred on 28 July, did not activate buyers.
After the test of $215, buyers were unable to upgrade the next local high and the price broke the triangle’s lower trend line. So far, it has happened on small volumes and on the big timeframe it looks uncertain. But in our opinion, the probability of continuation of the fall to $ 185, which we described in the previous analysis, remains very high:
The situation with volumes looks like in the game “who hits softly will be the winner”. Every day, the trading volumes are decreasing and such actions lead to sharp movements. Buyers will need to fix above firstly $220-225 for a sharp upward movement. We repeat that a continuation of the fall is more likely. However, if buyers change their position, increase volumes and candles look optimistic, we will correct our scenario.
If we analyze the weekly timeframe, we see that the last weekly candle closed behind the lower trend line of the channel. This was when price traded from December 2018, and if it is not a false breakdown, then the prospect of falling will not be limited to $185:
The critical point in a sharp fall will be the price of $155 — it is a price mark which buyers could not master for 4 months. We will check this forecast on a daily ETH analysis to see if the market situation has changed.
Marginal positions of buyers continue to move in the channel which we have drawn in the previous analysis and are now trying to test the bottom trend line:
Sellers are increasing their marginal positions and look confident enough. The last noticeable increase came at a time when the price sharply fell and tested the $204 price mark:
According to the wave analysis, Ethereum buyers are still refusing to form a wave (e) inside the triangle. They think of the probability of fall continuation after the price movement in the triangle to the level of Fibonacci 38.2%, which is at the price mark of $185.
Let’s see on Thursday whether sellers will cope with the price of $201 and whether they will have time to test $185. At the moment, there is little positive for buyers, but in the crypto world, everything is possible. See you in the following analysis!
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