Here comes the end of Bitcoin trading week. It’s time to analyze the situation for today, sum up the week, and decide rather the main scenario we are keeping lately remains relevant, or the situation is changing?
Starting from 15 August, the price is still moving in the consolidation triangle. Yesterday sellers tried to break through the local trend line of the triangle again. But in the first case, we see real light in the eyes of sellers in the form of volumes. And during the second attempt to attack we see characterless movement:
Feeling the local weakness of Bitcoin sellers, Bitcoin buyers began their attack and their target is USD 10,500-10,600.
Starting from 12 August, the day the new weekly candle began to form, the sellers are trying to stop buyers’ growth and lower the price. In fact, the main downward movement occurred within 2 days from 13 to 14 August, while consolidation took the rest of the time:
This week, the mood of sellers has stopped in one place. Buyers are not much affected by the sharp fall. At least, the chart of marginal positions showed the whole week of consolidation:
Sellers have been decreasing their positions all week and still lack the confidence and initiative to continue the fall:
According to wave analysis, for the previous week, sellers continued to form wave (Y), which began on 8 August. Bitcoin sellers practically managed to test the level of Fibonacci 61.8% at the price mark of USD 9440. Now, until sellers keep the level 31.8%, we are confidently expecting a further fall to the likely final target of USD 7500-7600:
Locally, buyers can fix above USD 10,500-10,600 and test USD 11,000. But it will not change our main scenario, as globally, the price continues to move in the black falling channel.
What should we expect next week? Looking at the weekly candle, we see that this week, sellers were able to completely absorb the two previous candles of buyers without spending a lot of volumes:
It means that globally Bitcoin buyers are not ready to keep the price in this range and fall continuation is still a matter of time. Therefore, the next week is likely to continue the fall and stop at the price of USD 9440. However, how will we actually analyze each day and correct the main scenario? Let’s start the new week confidently and in a good mood!
Charts Courtesy: TradingView
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