Monday today seems to be a departure from the past few weeks, where trends and sentiment seem to be against the grain of Sunday, with price today climbing well above the highs of the entire weekend, registering USD 10,624 at almost exactly 8:30 am Shanghai time (CoinDesk).
Asian trading hours have wound down right now but Bitcoin is still rather positive, priced at USD 10,345 during Central Europe high noon. The 5% jump in price that happend in mere minutes already has long-time Bitcoin advocate and RT host Max Keiser blurt out another call for a bull run, saying that the “coiled spring” was only waiting to “explode higher”.
#Bitcoin is a coiled spring about to explode higher.
— Max Keiser, tweet poet. (@maxkeiser) August 25, 2019
This unexpected price boost is hardly atypical to Bitcoin, but there are sure to be more commentators who will now feel a fresh injection of optimism in the final week of August. Like Keiser, they will be picking up old evidence of improving network statistics such as gaining hashpower in the Bitcoin network, increased volumes in transactions, as well as increasing number of wallets — both on user and merchant sides — to back up previous claims that Bitcoin is about to embark on yet another spectacular parabola.
But even if traditional metrics such as trading volumes on exchanges have been getting a lot of flak lately thanks to fake reporting and wash trading, for example, the good thing is that new research on these numbers are showing improving statistics as well. For example, data analytics firm Coinmetrics now claims that the Bitcoin network has for the first time passed a watershed moment in its history, with a so-called “realized market capitalization” for BTC passing USD 100 billion
According to them, realized market cap, which is a different and more reliable way of calculating Bitcoin market capitalization, can be arrived at by multiplying the price each bitcoin that was last traded by the size of each trade. This differs from the more straightforward way of multiplying global average price with coin supply. Using this alternative method, this USD 100 billion achievement is just the latest record to be broken, and joins other all-time high lists such as difficulty, hash rate, and daily trading volumes.
Nick Szabo, one of the earliest cryptographers associated with Bitcoin, this milestone matches the low volatility periods not seen since 2012. He commented:
“The long-term chart reflects the superior deep safety, global seamlessness, and monetary soundness of Bitcoin.”
As we also pointed out in a previous analysis, if we use this new metric method and combine it with more reliable data, then Bitcoin dominance is much closer to 90%, instead of 70% as most conventional sites put it at.
$BTC $BTCUSD #BITCOIN – 1H: All elements being clearly bullish, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions (at the time of purchase) on Bitcoin – BTC/USD as long as the price remains well above 10,236.00 USD. The buyers” bullish… https://t.co/GNQliD90m0
— CentralCharts EN (@CentralChartsEN) August 26, 2019
Automated technical analysis from CentralCharts (above) describe all elements to be “clearly bullish”, although there are also those who will point to a “bear cross” forming on the charts now, not seen since February. Be reminded, however, that not long after that bear cross was this year’s solid recovery phase that seems to only be in consolidation phase now.
We should not always look for something to credit for good news (or even bad news), but one does wonder if Trump’s trade war with China is responsible for this. Traditional markets could not react on time when his latest proclamations were made public on Friday, and it is only today that traders were able to liquidate assets to invest in Bitcoin. That sudden spike we saw today as Chinese trading floors opened for business could certainly explain that!
In any case, we should pay attention to the further developments from a US lawmaker visit to Switzerland that has just concluded over the weekend. Yesterday, Rep Maxine Waters published an official statement that reported how US House of Representatives members had meetings with regulatory agencies and lawmakers including the State Secretariat for International Financial Matters, the Federal Data Protection and Information Commissioner, and the Financial Market Supervisory Authority.
The Swiss visit was aimed to learn on how their officials would be monitoring and regulating Facebook’s Libra project (since the headquarters is registered in Switzerland and, therefore, under its jurisdiction). Waters did not seem convinced, however, saying:
“While I appreciate the time that the Swiss government officials took to meet with us, my concerns remain with allowing a large tech company to create a privately controlled, alternative global currency.”
The opinion of US lawmakers, judging from the Libra hearing with its boss David Marcus, seems to be that neither of them believed that the location of Libra’s headquarters was a coincidence, since that would effectively mean Libra could escape US scrutiny.
A request from them to delay Libra’s development was accepted by Marcus, who has promised that his company would pause development work on Libra until all concerns from the Federal Reserve and other US regulators had been addressed.
More commentary should arrive this week on this issue, and let’s pay attention to see if any sentiment can be derived.
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