A good and sharp start of the price growth was the perfect chance for Bitcoin buyers. They could break the falling trend of sellers and organize correction. However, after an absorbing candle on the daily timeframe, which was on an increased volume compared to a few previous candles, buyers turned off their activity when they met the price range of $8,300-8,500. Of course, there is a chance that buyers have made a stop and have plans to attack this price zone again. But if you compare buyers’ previous attempt to get out of consolidation, the picture is almost identical:
Pay attention that the volumes are about the same and also the behavior during the test of the price range of $8,300-8,500. As a result, the price range narrows and sellers again have the chance to try $7,700-7,800.
The black trend line from which buyers organize a counter-attack for the second time was once a high hope for buyers to break the triangle in upwards November 2018. Buyers carefully guarded it for half a year. Although, we know what happened in the end. We can conclude that if buyers do not keep the bottom line of current consolidation, then continuation of the price fall to $6,300 is very probable.
The nature of the local fall beginning is much more passive than growth in both volume and candles. We assume that another test of the upper trend line of consolidation is quite possible. How will buyers show themselves this time and whether they will be able to change the situation, fixing above $8,500?
Marginal buyers positions are slightly increasing. But, they are still at a critical point near the bottom trend line of the blue channel:
On a small timeframe, Bitcoin sellers managed to break through the channel of movement of their marginal positions. Now, we can understand whether they will return to the trading channel or not:
Since, the wave analysis targets are unchanged, as the price continues to trade in consolidation, let’s take a closer look at consolidation today:
As you can see from the chart, every subsequent attack of Bitcoin buyers ended at the level of Fibonacci. Now, wave (d) is finishing to form, and given the structure of consolidation, it is likely that wave (e) may be the last in this consolidation.
Therefore, the main scenario of breaking $7,700 and moving on to $6,300 remains valid. We are waiting for the end of the day and the picture will be much clearer tomorrow.
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