Bitcoin price is still well below its former record, but the top cryptocurrency by market cap at the time of this writing is making another attempt to reclaim lost support near all-time highs set earlier in the year.
The “retest” thus far is holding above a key level, and when compared to past peaks in the crypto market, this time almost certainly appears to be different. If the repeating pattern yields different results yet remains to be seen, but a unique outcome this time around would suggest a rally to new highs.
The Four Most Expensive Words: “This Time It’s Different”
According to Sir John Templeton, the most dangerous mindset in investing is assuming that “this time it’s different.” Markets are cyclical and price action often exhibits fractal-like patterns. Even Bitcoin itself appears to repeat in cycles every four years based on the built-in issuance mechanism called the halving.
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Despite this predictability, how the cycle unfolds can present itself in unique ways. For example, the 2014-2015 bear market was a deep, rounding structure, leading to a dramatic rise and top in 2017. A failed retest led to additional lower highs and a descending triangle pattern that ultimately broke down.
A retest of former support turned resistance is thus far holding | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
In 2019, Bitcoin rebounded from the most recent bear market bottom, starting a new cycle in cryptocurrencies. After topping out below the asset’s former all-time high the same year, the remaining resistance above led to another failed retest and sustained bearish phase.
Bitcoin has topped once again, but this time the subsequent retest appears to be holding which could lead to new highs ahead.
Lack Of Resistance Could Lead Bitcoin Back To Price Discovery
The lack of resistance during this phase of the cycle could result in a different outcome from the past two tops, despite Sir Templeton’s advice. Past retests also failed below the middle-line on the Bollinger Bands, which is a 20-week simple moving average on the below weekly chart.
BTC makes it above the middle-BB on this retest, not on others | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The current retest has made it above the middle-Bollinger Band, which in an of itself can be used effectively as a signal to buy or go long.
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Note that during the last bull market, once Bitcoin price was able to hold and stay above the middle-SMA, the uptrend rarely took pause from that point on. It is also when the leading cryptocurrency by market cap blasted off into the final stages of the last bull market.
So, is this time really different? With no resistance above, reclaiming this level with a successful retest couldn’t possibly be more bullish for Bitcoin.
After a failure to move higher, often markets retest a range. If successful, prices might pass through the previous range. If unsuccessful, price finds a range below instead. With less resistance than past tops, the most recent #Bitcoin retest might be bullish. But BTC must hold. pic.twitter.com/0uznyPk5kC
— Tony “The Bull” Spilotro (@tonyspilotroBTC) August 19, 2021
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com